Monday 30 November 2015

Responses to the opinion article in Trouw

Below features the text of the opinion article with Emmy Bergsma, which was recently published in Dutch newspaper Trouw. We've received several reactions since. These include roughly two types of reactions:
1) a supportive type of reaction, from people who share our surprise on the lack debate on the consequences of the new Dutch flood risk policy. 
2) a more critical reaction, mostly from people who have helped technically in developing this new policy. According to them, this opinion article is exaggerating, and seems to suggest we don't understand the calculations and numbers.
Indeed, there will be what is referred to as a 'basic safety' norm, in the past there were also differences in flood protection levels, the process seems to have opened up somewhat under the current Head of Department (Minister Schultz), and lower levels of government have been informed about this new policy (note that some have responded that they find the new policy too complex and that they can't explain this to their citizens). 
However, this new calculation tool enables more political space to make choices in which areas will receive higher protection levels than others. There are indeed currently also differences in protection levels, but the space to increase these differences will be become bigger. And moreover, it is not clear yet, in which way the norms will chance exactly for the flood-prone areas in the Netherlands. Also, the Deltaprogramme very explicitly indicates it targets cost-efficiency, and indicates it will aim for differences in protection levels based on the value in an area (i.e. density of people and economic assets). And it very explicitly refers to the approach called "Multi-layered-safety", which also implies differences in protection levels, including evacuation plans instead of dike protection. 
In addition, 2 years ago, the OECD pointed out in the Policy Dialogue on Water Governance with the Dutch government (in 2013), that general awareness of flood risks appeared to be surprisingly low. Dutch flood risk management appears to have become so good, that people don't realise anymore that they may be living in flood-prone areas. It does not appear that since the OECD Policy Dialogue, Dutch citizens have become substantially more aware of the flood risks, or even that the norms for their areas might be changing (as a consequence of the new Deltaprogramme). 
Apart from debate about the numbers and exact changes in flood risk norms, what this article tries to point out, is that people who pay taxes for collective flood risk protection may be affected by this new policy, although it is not yet clear how exactly, and there has been no national debate about how we want to finance our flood-protection, how we distribute the benefits, and whether we want to base flood-protection solely on a financial logic.

***

Bescherming tegen overstromingen niet langer collectief goed

Emmy Bergsma
promovenda op gebied van waterbeleid, Universiteit van Amsterdam
Roos M. den Uyl
beleidsonderzoeker op gebied van klimaatadaptatie, University of Exeter

Er dreigen grote risico’s voor Nederland op het gebied van waterbeheer. Klimaatverandering vergroot niet alleen de kans op grote overstromingen, ook lokale wateroverlast zal vaker voorkomen. Als gevolg van nieuw overheidsbeleid, zal een deel van de Nederlanders in de toekomst genoegen moeten nemen met minder bescherming tegen overstromingen.

Op het zesde Nationaal Deltacongres, dat onlangs plaatsvond, bleek de grote vooruitstrevendheid waarmee de overheid deze klimaatrisico’s te lijf gaat. Het belangrijkste wapen in deze strijd is het zogenoemde Deltaprogramma. Maar dit programma heeft gevolgen die tot op heden aan de publieke aandacht lijken te zijn ontsnapt.

Twee maatregelen uit het Deltaprogramma, de deltabeslissing ‘Waterveiligheid’ en de deltabeslissing ‘Ruimtelijke Adaptatie’, knagen namelijk aan een van meest diepgewortelde basisrechten in de Nederlandse geschiedenis: het recht op collectieve bescherming tegen overstromingen. Vooral dunbevolkte provincies waar relatief weinig economische activiteit plaatsvindt, lijken het kind van de rekening.

Met de deltabeslissing Waterveiligheid stapt Nederland over op nieuwe normen voor de waterveiligheid. Met deze nieuwe normen wordt explicieter rekening gehouden met de mogelijke (economische) gevolgen van een overstroming. Dit betekent dat in gebieden waar het risico groot is - waar veel slachtoffers kunnen vallen of waar overstromingen veel financiële schade kunnen aanrichten - de overheid blijft inzetten op dijkversterking. Hiervoor is eerder dit jaar bedrag uitgetrokken dat met lof werd ontvangen: 20 miljard euro tot 2050.

Maar een vrijwel onbesproken keerzijde van deze deltabeslissing is dat in ‘lage-risicogebieden’ - dunner bevolkte of economisch minder actieve gebieden - de veiligheidsnormen omlaag gaan. Noord-Hollanders buiten de Randstad hebben in de toekomst dus minder recht op collectieve bescherming dan Noord-Hollanders in de Randstad; Friesland ontvangt relatief minder bescherming dan Zuid-Holland.

De deltabeslissing Ruimtelijke Adaptatie heeft een soortgelijk effect. Met deze beslissing wordt in ‘lage-risicogebieden’ ingezet op ‘ruimtelijke maatregelen’ als alternatief voor dijkversterking. Ruimtelijke maatregelen hebben niet zozeer als doel overstromingen te voorkomen, maar moeten er voor zorgen dat het lokale watersysteem de gevolgen van een overstroming beter kan opvangen. Te denken valt aan het toepassen van waterresistente bouwmaterialen in uw woning, het verminderen van verhard oppervlak op uw bedrijventerrein en het afkoppelen van uw regenwaterafvoer op het gemeentelijke rioleringsstelsel. Ruimtelijke maatregelen doen dus een groter beroep op u als burger.

Bij elkaar opgeteld, heeft het Deltaprogramma tot gevolg dat burgers in ‘lage-risicogebieden’ minder aanspraak kunnen maken op collectieve bescherming tegen overstromingen dan burgers in ‘hoge-risicogebieden’ terwijl zij tegelijkertijd moeten mee-investeren in ‘ruimtelijke maatregelen’ om zich te blijven weren tegen overstromingen.

Deze verandering is vanuit een financieel oogpunt begrijpelijk. Op sommige plekken is inzetten op ruimtelijke maatregelen ‘kostenefficiënter’ dan overal de dijken verhogen. Waterbeheer stelt ons land nu eenmaal voor lastige keuzes. Maar met het Deltaprogramma stuurt de Nederlandse overheid aan op technocratische besluitvorming over overstromingsrisico’s, waardoor dit soort besluiten buiten het politieke en publieke debat wordt gehouden.

Dit is onverstandig. De gevolgen van het Deltaprogramma zijn niet alleen technisch van aard, maar raken mensen daadwerkelijk. De overheid houdt de belangenafwegingen achter het Deltaprogramma nu vooral intern. Hierdoor kunnen mensen de keuzes achter het nieuwe waterbeleid niet bevragen. Bovendien kunnen burgers en bedrijven, als zij hierover niet geïnformeerd zijn, zich niet voorbereiden op de gevolgen die het nieuwe waterbeleid voor hen zal hebben. De overheid zou juist open moeten zijn over dit soort keuzes. Niet alleen voor de legitimiteit, maar ook voor een effectieve uitvoer van het Deltaprogramma.

Tuesday 24 November 2015

Dutch flood risk management

I recently wrote a short opinion piece about the new Dutch flood risk management, with a fellow researcher from the University of Amsterdam (Emmy Bergsma). It builds upon the work we did in BASE for D2.2, and the analysis I did of Dutch adaptation policy. Flood risk policy is the main developed pillar of Dutch adaptation policy. And Emmy Bergsma's research compares flood risk management in the Netherlands and the USA. The opinion piece has just been published in one of the major Dutch quality newspapers, Trouw.
In short, it's about the upcoming changes in Dutch flood risk management. The Dutch government has decided to make Dutch flood risk management more cost-efficient. That may sound very reasonable and appropriate at first sight. But the lack of public and political discussion about the consequences of that decision is striking. What it will mean is that people living densely populated areas will be entitled to higher protection levels than people living in rural areas. In addition, people living in rural areas will have to organize and fund protection measures themselves, something which used to be collectively organized in the Netherlands, and whilst these regions have not yet been actively informed. The lack of public and political debate about this new flood risk policy jeopardizes the legitimacy and effectiveness of it.

Saturday 5 September 2015

Media

Last week, there was the yearly international conference from the Royal Geographical Society (RGS) in Exeter (from 1-4 Sept). The RGS had selected a couple of papers which they thought would be interesting for the press. The contribution from me and my colleague Duncan Russel about our study on the Dawlish railway line was included in the RGS’ press release. Well and indeed, apparently, it was interesting for the media! As several approached me for an interview. Within 2 days I had given 3 interviews for radio, 1 for television and 1 for a newspaper. As addressing the media is pretty new for me, it was quite a steep learning curve. I realized how intense it is!! It takes quite some concentration and effort to explain the main points of the study as clear and accessible as possible and at the same time as short and concise as possible. If you’d like to have a look at how our study was covered in the media, here are some links:
   

- National news radio programme on BBC 5 Live, Drive, around 1u48min (available until end of September): http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b067w74s

- Regional radio, BBC Radio Devon, I haven’t been able yet to locate around which time (let me know if you do) (also available until end of September): http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02zddym

- Local radio, Radio Exe, but I don’t think the clip is available online:  http://www.radioexe.co.uk/news-and-features/local-news/climate-change-could-have-caused-dawlish-rail-collapse/

- The clip in the regional television news programme BBC Spotlight is unfortunately no longer available online

Wednesday 20 May 2015

ECCA Conference May 2015 Copenhagen

Last week, I was at the European Conference on Climate Change Adaptation (ECCA), in the lovely city of Copenhagen. There were researchers from many different perspectives, but all sharing an interest in climate change adaptation. I observed two strands of research to be quite dominant at the conference:

1) Research on knowledge supply. For example in terms of economic assessments, impact assessments, risk assessments. All more or less under the heading of improved insight into options, expected effects and events will enable better climate change adaptation. Which means that there is an underlying assumption that there is currently a lack of knowledge, and that there is an underlying assumption a certain willingness or readiness from decision making (or decision influencing) actors to use that knowledge. An interesting contribution nuancing this idea of knowledge supply came from James Porter, from the University of Leeds, who presented on a study about the relationship between knowledge on climate change and actions by local authorities (in the UK) – summarised in my own words as: knowledge is important to enable action, but without resources and political support, more knowledge is not likely to support action.  

2) Research on participation, dialogue, knowledge exchange, learning, co-creation. Of which most research is more or less centred around the idea that actors are interested in and able to (and invited to) join a deliberative process around climate change adaptation. And on the idea that a deliberative process is beneficial to develop and implement an adaption plan. There was a refreshing contribution from Joanne Vinke-De Kruijf (from the University of Osnabrueck), who studies the factors why groups, networks or consortia learn (and what they actually learn) in cases around water management.

While climate change adaptation is increasingly being studied and considered in sectors such as agriculture, water management and nature conservation, there are also sectors which have been studied less in relation to climate change adaptation. And which have also been less active in climate change adaptation, such as health, sports and education. Dormant sectors, Mikael Hilden from SYKE in Helsinki, called them. Where there is still a lot of potential for actors to become more active in addressing climate change impacts, and for researchers to study these sectors.

At the conference last week, it was as if for many researchers climate change adaptation is something like a given, as something that is important and relevant and that obviously will require action. Well, considering the expected climate change impacts (floods, droughts, heat stress, storm surge impacts), adaptation may indeed be something wise to consider. But, in practice, climate change adaptation is not (yet) taking place everywhere, in all sectors, or is considered by various decision makers at various levels. In comparison to many other established environment-related topics (such as nature conservation, agriculture, sustainable development), climate change adaptation is still a relative newcomer. Established decisionmaking structures may not necessarily be open, willing or able to include climate change adaption. Wouldn’t this be something in particular interesting to study? To acknowledge that climate change adaptation is not automatically addressed everywhere. And to study why existing decisionmaking structures include a relative newcomer such as climate change adaptation or not?

PS: international academic conferences are essential for academic development. It enables to learn from each other, be introduced to new research, ask questions, follow and participate in debates, meet people, etc. (Unfortunately not replaceable by video conferencing.) However, flying all these researchers around the world obviously does not contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. There doesn't seem to be a solution for this insight, put perhaps we could think a bit more about it?










Thursday 16 April 2015

2 Recent articles that struck me!


This week, there were 2 articles that particularly caught my eye and that were actually a sort of relief to spot. Whilst one comes from public administration research, and the other from geography, they both argue to go beyond the comfort zone of a disciplinary field, and argue for interdisciplinary work to understand the (governance) challenges climate change brings us: 


1) A new article from Christopher Pollitt (2015), "Wickedness will not wait: climate change and public management research", in Public Money and Management (vol. 35 (3), pp. 181-186). 
He abstracts his article as: "This paper shows that climate change is a ‘wicked’ problem, which presents multiple challenges for public management. These challenges are already with us, but are likely to increase in the short and medium terms, possibly very rapidly. Academic public management research appears to have been slow to address these issues. Yet potentially there are several strong points of contact between climate change issues and current public management research themes. This will, however, require interdisciplinary and international approaches."

2) A new article from Noel Castree (2015): "Geography and Global Change Science: Relationships Necessary, Absent, and Possible", in Geographical Research (vol. 53 (1), pp. 1-15). 
Castree abstracts his paper as: "Initiated by geoscientists, the growing debate about the Anthropocene, 'planetary boundaries' and global 'tipping points' is a significant opportunity for geographers to reconfigure two things: one is the internal relationships among their discipline's many and varied perspectives (topical, philosophical, and methodological) on the real; the other the discipline's actual and perceived contributions to important issues in the wider society. Yet, without concerted effort and struggle, the opportunity is likely to be used in a 'safe' and rather predictable way by only a sub-set of human-environment geographers. The socio-environmental challenges of a post-Holocene world invite old narratives about Geography's holistic intellectual contributions to be reprised in the present. These narratives speak well to many geoscientists, social scientists, and decision-makers outside Geography. However, they risk perpetuating an emaciated conception of reality wherein Earth systems and social systems are seen as knowable and manageable if the 'right' ensemble of expertise is achieved. I argue that we need to get out from under the shadow of these long-standing narratives. Using suggestive examples, I make the case for forms of inquiry across the human-physical 'divide' that eschew ontological monism and that serve to reveal the many legitimate cognitive, moral, and aesthetic framings of Earth present and future. Geography is unusual in that the potential for these forms of inquiry to become normalised is high compared with other subjects. This potential will only be taken advantage of if certain human-environment geographers unaccustomed to engaging the world of geoscience and environmental policy change their modus operandi."


Wednesday 1 April 2015

Case study summaries



There will be a 1-day workshop on Monday 11 May (the day before the ECCA conference in Copenhagen starts) to share experiences between all the cases that are being studied for the BASE project. We were asked to provide short summaries of our case studies, attached here below. Everyone was also asked to invite and bring a stakeholder from the cases we're studying. this didn't work out for our cases, as people were too busy or had already other plans. Interactive, participatory, knowledge-exchange platforms may be very laudable and beneficial. But in practice, sometimes the ambitions or intentions of the organising party doesn't always match with the agenda, resources, strategy or interests of the invited groups...


SECTOR CLUSTER: COASTAL ZONES
South Devon Coast around Dawlish
Objective:To understand what influences the process of adapting this part of the coast to a changing climate, in terms of institutional barriers and enablers. This is a small retrospective and current case study on adaptation in coastal areas. In this case, the main railway line (and only line connecting the Southwest) runs straight along the rocky cliff shore, and is vulnerable for storm impacts and erosion. Last winter (after severe storms in Feb 2014), the railway was closed for two months. The institutional setting around this case is rather complex and fragmented. For example the seawall and railway tracks are owned and managed by a government-owned company, the train services are run by a private company, the local authorities do not have the resources and capacity to make major decisions around this part of the coast, and the national authorities claim adaptation in in this areas is a matter of the local authorities. There were several adaptation measures considered (e.g. raising the sea wall, rerouting the railway more inland), after extreme weather events severely damaged the seawall and railway last winter. The seawall and railway have been repaired (to the way they were before the big damages). However adaptation to the impacts of storm surges and erosion seems to be losing priority again, and it appears everything regarding adaptation has been put on hold. This making it an interesting and important case to study barriers and enablers for climate change adaptation.
    

SECTOR CLUSTER: AGRICULTURE & BIODIVERSITY
Dartmoor National Park
ObjectiveTo understand barriers and enablers in climate change adaptation in this National Park. After a brief moment of attention for climate change adaptation (in 2011), the national park authority was instructed by higher level government to take climate change off the agenda again. Whilst the national park authority states not to be currently active in climate change adaptation, there other initiatives taking place that do address several adaptation issues. One of these was initiated by local farmers, another was a 5year project initiated by a drinking water company and university researchers. The farmer-led initiative includes measures such as measures to maintain public access (e.g. after damages from extreme weather events); to enhance biodiversity; to maintain mosaic landscape with openness and some parts with higher vegetation; to maintain training of commoners to able to fight wildfires and remove vegetation where needed to reduce potential of wildfires. It is expected to be hampered by the new agri-environmental schemes policy starting 2016. The 5year project is focused on preservation of the blanket bog (e.g. by gully blocking to keep wetness), is led by the drinking water company and university researchers, and will not be continued after it finishes this year. The variety and number of local actors, together with dynamics between local and national priorities, make this case valuable to study and learn from.

Friday 6 March 2015

WP7 Kickoff - Or: how to analyse the EU adaptation policy?

Last week, on Tuesday 24 February (2015), we had the kick-off meeting to start Work Package 7 (abbreviated as WP7).

– What is a Work Package? These large international research projects (like the FP7 funded BASE project) are divided up into several pockets of work focused on a specific task, i.e. a ‘Work Package’. In BASE, there in total 8 Work Packages. –

In WP7, we will look at climate change adaptation policy at the level of the European Union (EU). We will look, first, at several EU legislation and official directives, and analyse in which way climate change adaptation is included (or not) in the formulation of the text of those. Second, we will dive into a couple of sectoral EU policies (likely to be water management, coastal management, public health management, agriculture management and biodiversity conservation). We will analyse why (or why not), and if so, in which way, climate change adaptation is adopted or taken into account in these sectoral policies. Third, the aim is to synthesise all findings from the BASE project, and translate these into a guidance for policy makers at EU level, and possibly also for other policy-making audiences.

There are in total 10 institutions from 8 member-states involved in this Work Package (i.e. Aarhus University and DBT from Denmark; ISPRA and CMCC from Italy; UFZ from Germany; FFCUL from Portugal; SYKE from Finland; CVGZ from Czech Republic; BC3 from Spain; and University of Exeter from the UK). We were with an international group of 10 persons on Tuesday, with delegates from Denmark, Germany, Finland, Italy, Portugal, Czech Republic, and the UK (and we had one more delegate via Skype).

In the morning Alessio Capriolo (from ISPRA in Rome) updated us about their work on the analysis of the EU legislation (whether there are references to climate change adaptation in the formulation of the text), for WP7.1. And we discussed the next steps for this task. We considered to use the case studies already being conducted for the BASE project (for WP5). And to analyse in which way national level polices affect these case studies, and how these national level polices relate to the EU policies.

In the afternoon, we split up into two groups. One group discussed how to start the analysis for the deeper understanding of why climate change adaptation is adopted or not in relevant EU policies (for WP7.2). This task will also include empirical data collection (i.e. interviewing policy-makers from the European Commission in Brussels, and collecting and reviewing relevant documentation), which is expected to take place in May/June. And the other group discussed how to start the synthesis, and how to translate that into relevant guidance for EU policymakers (for WP7.3). This last task is not due very soon, but we considered that is important that other relevant project members (i.e. leaders of the deliverables) are aware (asap) that an extraction will be needed of the deliverables, to enable the synthesis and translation to the guidance document.

Below some pictures of the meeting: